The three risk scenarios in Italy’s new Pandemic Plan

According to media reports, the new Strategic Operational Plan for Preparedness and Response to a Pandemic of Respiratory Pathogens with Increased Pandemic Potential 2025-2029 (drafted by the Italian Ministry of Health and submitted to the Conference of the Regions) anticipates three risk scenarios, of which two are related to influenza viruses and are considered more probable, while the third is the worst possible scenario, although unlikely. In the event of a pandemic of influenza virus characterised by ‘mild’ pathogenicity, the number of hospital admissions could vary from 18,882 to 47,809, and admissions to intensive care unit (ICU) from 2,259 to 5,737. The intermediate scenario, linked to an influenza virus characterised by ‘moderate’ pathogenicity, assumes between 103,522 and 262,948 admissions and between 12,423 and 31,554 accesses in ICU. Finally, the worst-case scenario, which the Plan associates with a coronavirus characterised by ‘severe’ pathogenicity, is expected to result in between 103,522 and 262,948 admissions and between 12,423 and 31,554 accesses to ICU. In this case, the total number of admissions could range from 570,715 to 3,047,150, and the number of admissions to ICU from 68,697 to 366,787. At the peak, between 20,986 and 2 million beds could be required for ordinary hospital stays, and between 2,779 and 269 thousand in intensive care units.